I’ve been reading a lot of Slate Star Codex/Astral Codex Ten recently and what Scott Alexander, the author of that blog, does is yearly predictions. I thought it was a cute thing to do, so here are mine. Basically It’s a statement rated from 0-100% on the likelihood of it happening by 1 January 2023.

Personal

I will buy a car: 95% I’ve already been to dealerships. It’s a massive pain with the supply chain shortage. I’m almost certainly going to get a new car in the coming months, but maybe not right away given the prices and availability.

I will move: 90% Planning on doing this right I buy a car.

I will buy a home: 2% I’m not particularly warm to the idea of home ownership at the moment, but it’s possible.

I travel to Taiwan: 10% My friend was planning this trip and I was going to tag along with April. Delayed or not happening because of COVID

I travel to Canada: 80% This is the next trip I am planning on going on. I want to go see my friend in Toronto.

I travel to France: 5% No reason to go to France at the moment, but a reason may come up and should have no reason for me to get denied entry.

I travel to Michigan: 6% To visit a friend near Detroit. This will probably only happen if I stop by Detroit first before going to Canada.

I travel to Florida: 1% I have a friend Near Miami that I may want to travel and see.

I travel to New Jersey: 5% I have a group of friends in NJ, one of whom travelled to California and we got to see each other last year. I’d like to go there for my next trip after Canada.

I make a new friend: 55% I’m working on being more open to helping others and being more friendly and a better friend/person. I’m not as open to opportunities to meet others at the moment, but I’m more open to making an effort to making people I meet friends.

I start a new relationship: 40% Same situation with new friends. More open to the opportunity and making and effort, but not really exposing myself to a lot of opportunities to meet new people.

I play in a new D&D campaign: 70% Mostly depends on whether my friend in New Jersey picks up his session again. Last year I was in 2 campaigns. One ended and the DM created a Starfinder campaign instead.

I run my own D&D campaign (or one shot): 30% I have an idea I might want to run and integrate into the D&D session run by my New Jersey friend.

I change Linux distros: 20% I’m pretty happy with Fedora at the moment. I may want to do a clean reinstall at some point. I have been putting off upgrading or changing anything when I was completing my degree. Now that I’m done I’ll reassess and see if I want to change distros.

I weigh less than 170lbs: 10% I don’t really want to lose weight. My only problem at the moment is the I weight a little more than I usually do (high end of 180s instead of low end of 180s) and I feel weaker than I want to be at my weight.

I deadlift over 315lbs: 30% It will depend on how much I’m feeling the gym this year. I’ve been deadlifting 275lbs but I’ve been stagnating since I changed jobs. Not feeling particularly motivated for gym stuff at the moment.

I make another blog post: 90% I’ll probably make some minor post at some point. Maybe It’ll be predictions for 2023.

I pick up a new hobby: 10% Don’t have any plans to get a new hobby. I feel adequately loaded doing D&D and BJJ. I would like to have some creative outlet though.

My relationship to my sibling improves: 5% This implies that our relationship is bad or rocky. I don’t think this is the case. I think we’re both happy where our relationship is at and our current dynamic, so no reason to change.

Financial

I pay over $10,000 in taxes this year: 60% This would be very easy to figure out but checking would be cheating. I think I’ll probably have to pay that much due to the capital gains taxes from selling all my ESPP stock from my previous company.

I become a millionaire: 1% I guess this could happen if I get absurdly lucky. With all my investments and current salary, there is no realistic way that I could reach a million dollar net worth by the end of the year.

Professional

I get or accept an offer at a new job: 1% It’s hard to image an offer that would make me want to change jobs within a year of starting my current job. I’m very happy with my current job.

I will get fired from my current job: 1% This is mostly an “imposter syndrome” check. I don’t think performance wise I’ll get fired. I don’t think there’s any major action that would lead me being fired.

I get a raise: 50%

I start a PHD: 1% I don’t think I’m going to apply for one yet. I’m pretty burnt out regarding school and want to spend a couple years not doing anything related to it.

Political

Democrats gain seats in Senate: 10% Overall there are more GOP seats up for election, but Democrats have a very large uphill battle.

Democrats gain seats in House: 25% I think the more discrete districts will favor Democrats. They will still have a tough time, but I think the redistricting will benefit them (I think the redistricting would apply for this election but I could be wrong).

Democrats keep the Senate: 15% They have tough elections to win in Georgia and Arizona. It’s possible they can hold one or both and maybe pick up a seat in Pennsylvania

Democrats keep the House: 40%

Kamala Harris becomes President of the United States: 1% Not a high chance but you never know what happens with old people. It’s a sub 1% chance but I’m rounding up.

Inflation rate goes back to normal: 70%

Supply chain issues get resolved: 80% I think steps are already being taken to fix this and we are on the path to fixing the issues.

Chip shortage get resolved: 60% except for GPUs, of course.

Coronavirus

There will be a new variant that will overtake omicron: 80%

COVID-19 will no longer be a big deal: 85% I think with the oral medication that has been approved (Molnupiravir, PAXLOVID, and potentially Luvox if approved). I think this is the year in which if someone gets sick with COVID, we have the tools to prevent death if they’re not vaccinated and at high risk, regardless of variant and therefore have no need to do lockdowns, mandatory masks or other public health policy measures.

My company will have a return to office from remote work: 65% RTO may get delayed once but it will happen by the end of the year.